Locals rally in a street in Damascus, Syria, Dec 8, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]
Syria has an important strategic location and a complex internal ethnic and religious situation. The collapse of the Syrian government will not only cause turmoil in the country, but will also bring more instability to the entire Middle East, leading to further tensions in the region.
On the domestic level, there are multiple forces in Syria that have different ethnic and religious backgrounds and that are supported by different external forces. In the past, the various opposition groups cooperated to fight against the Bashar al-Assad government. But when this common goal disappears, whether the forces can continue to cooperate with each other is a question.
After the collapse of the Assad government, which originally controlled most of Syria’s territory, the country’s political landscape will become more fragmented, and the possibility of conflicts among various forces for territory will increase.
The main forces defeating the government forces consist of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Free Syrian Army supported by Turkiye, and the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is a Kurdish-led coalition of United States-backed ethnic militias and rebel groups. If and how they will work with each other to run the war-torn country remains to be seen.
Therefore, the competition among major powers in Syria will make the future situation in Syria more complicated.
From a geopolitical perspective, the sudden change in Syria’s political situation will have different impacts on regional powers. Syria is considered a member of the “resistance axis” led by Iran, and the collapse of the Assad government will lead to the weakening of Iran’s regional influence. Teheran may thus face more suppression from the US and the West in the future, and its historical foe, Israel, will be more proactive in the Middle East.
In addition, if the situation in Syria falls into chaos, which appears to be very likely, it will also have an impact on neighboring countries. A large number of Syrian refugees have already poured into neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan and Turkiye. This will further aggravate the regional social and economic burden.
Meanwhile, extremist organizations such as the Islamic State may once again take advantage of the chaos to grow and become a major threat to regional security again.
XINHUA NEWS AGENCY