China’s imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2024 added up to 32.33 trillion yuan ($4.54 trillion), up 5.3 percent year-on-year.
China’s domestic consumer market has also maintained a steady growth momentum. In the first three quarters, the volume of bulk commodities China imported increased by 5 percent year-on-year, and the import of integrated circuits in particular increased by 13.5 percent. The structure of China’s exports has also been improving, with mechanical and electrical products accounting for 59.3 percent of the total, up 8 percent year-on-year, while the exports of high-end equipment increased by 43.4 percent, and that of integrated circuits, automobiles and household appliances by 22 percent, 22.5 percent and 15.5 percent respectively.
However, customs data also show China’s exports growth in September was only 1.6 percent in yuan terms and 2.4 percent in US dollar terms, both showing a weak momentum. Aside from the high exports base in September 2023, extreme weather conditions, difficulties faced by the global shipping industry, and the expected strike by dockworkers on the US’ East Coast, the slowdown in external demand served as a major reason.
Behind China’s expanding trade surplus in goods is the strengthening of its industrial competitiveness, the resilience of its exports, as well as the recent decline in global commodity prices, which has lowered the value of its imports.
To evaluate whether a country’s trade surplus is reasonable, one should not only look at the absolute size of its trade surplus, but also the proportion of its trade surplus to GDP. Currently, the proportion is not high. At the same time, to judge whether a country’s trade is balanced, one should look at both its trade in goods and trade in services, and also trade statistics and balance of payments data. The ratio of China’s current account surplus to GDP is only 1.1 percent, which means it is within a reasonable and balanced range.
It is inexplicable that some countries, while pointing fingers at China’s trade surplus, continue to tighten measures restricting their exports to China.
GUANCHA.CN