The strong performance of the Chinese economy on many fronts in the first month of the fourth quarter makes it premature for some analysts in the West to conclude that China will miss its annual economic targets. On the contrary, the country is increasingly confident of achieving its economic goals and will remain a major engine driving global growth.
The fourth quarter usually contributes the biggest share of China’s annual economy, accounting for more than 27 percent in recent years. According to a number of leading economic indicators released recently, there has been a significant increase in positive factors for economic growth, while the fourth quarter has made a good start thanks to a package of incremental policy measures, including a cut in the reserve requirement ratio, deed tax reductions and trade-in programs for consumer goods.
Consumption, investment, exports and market sentiment all improved significantly in October, while the service production index grew at its fastest pace this year. The real estate production index last month realized growth for the first time since June 2023, and the retail sales of consumer goods was up 4.8 percent year on year in October. The value of goods exports jumped by 11.2 percent year on year in October, the highest rate since May 2023. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stood at 50.1 last month — returning to expansion after staying below 50 for five straight months.
The improvement of major economic indicators in October is encouraging and remarkable. This trend is highly likely to continue in the last two months of the year, as the confidence of enterprises and consumers has been shored up.
The fourth quarter is traditionally a key time for production and consumption. Notably, sales of automobiles and home appliances increased substantially in October. China’s new energy vehicle sales reached 1.43 million units last month, up 49.6 percent year on year — with nearly 90 percent of these units sold in the domestic market.
In addition, recent active trading in the property and stock markets further demonstrated improved public expectations. In October, the transaction volume of new commercial housing and existing homes increased by 3.9 percent year on year, the first increase after dropping for eight consecutive months. Also encouraging was the average daily turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, which reached 1.98 trillion yuan in October, a surge of nearly 150 percent.
China’s latest move to raise the ceiling on local government debt by 6 trillion yuan (about $834 billion dollars) to replace existing hidden debt — the strongest debt alleviation measure introduced in recent years, will significantly ease the pressure on local governments to dissolve debt, free up more resources for economic development, and boost the confidence of business entities.
Thanks to the effective implementation of such incremental policies, there is good reason to believe that economic operation in November and December will continue to sustain the growth momentum.
China’s huge market is full of potential. Whether it is urbanization or consumption, there is significant market demand that can still be released. Promising sectors like the ice and snow economy and the low-altitude economy, along with the development of new quality productive forces, will combine to provide the economy with new and sustained momentum.
Clearly, many positive factors have underlined that the Chinese economy’s sound fundamentals, favorable conditions, strong resilience and great potential have not changed, while its general trend of high-quality development and steady progress has been maintained.
China has for more than 10 years remained the biggest engine driving the global economy — contributing around 30 percent to the world’s economic growth on average. Last year, China’s gross domestic product surpassed 126 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2 percent, ranking the country among the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the Chinese economy grew by 4.8 percent. Given its good start to the fourth quarter, China has full confidence in meeting its 2024 growth targets.
Amid a complex and severe external environment, China certainly has sufficient policy space and abundant policy reserves. Together with new major reforms, all these factors will support the steady and high-quality development of the Chinese economy and ensure its bright prospects.