China’s domestic air travel market will surpass that of the United States to become the world’s largest by 2043. It will also more than double its current commercial airplane fleet size, fueled by ever-growing demand, US aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co said in a forecast.
As China’s economy and air traffic continue to grow, its commercial fleet size will grow by 4.1 percent annually over the next two decades to 9,740 jets by 2043, and more than half of the new deliveries will be used to meet growing demand, according to Boeing’s latest Commercial Market Outlook.
Through 2043, China’s annual passenger traffic growth of 5.9 percent will exceed the global average of 4.7 percent. This would mean China is set to witness the world’s largest traffic flow. The country’s air passenger volumes will get a boost as airlines grow their flight networks by connecting major hubs with smaller cities, Boeing said in Beijing on Tuesday.
China’s fundamentals for sustained development of its air travel market remain robust, supported by a current population of 1.4 billion, and more than 200 million middle-income families by 2043, Boeing said.
“China’s economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic and grown steadily, including growth in personal consumption and industrial production,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice-president of commercial marketing.
“The country’s commercial aviation market for passengers and cargo continues to expand, with airlines building their in-country networks. As this forecast shows, China’s airlines will see strong demand, requiring further growth of their modern fuel-efficient fleets,” Hulst said.
He said that in the past 20 years, China’s civil aviation market achieved higher-than-expected growth. This year, the commercial fleet size of China accounted for 15 percent of the total globally, behind the US (27 percent). Back in 2004, China’s fleet size accounted for 5 percent of the global market.
China will require 6,720 single-aisle aircraft through 2043, accounting for more than three-quarters of the total deliveries. Also, the country will have the world’s largest wide-body fleet to support the growth of international routes, with demand for 1,575 new wide-body airplanes, Boeing said.
Through 2043, Chinese carriers will generate demand for $780 billion worth of aviation services, including digital solutions, maintenance and modifications. The country will need to hire and train nearly 430,000 new aviation personnel, including new pilots, maintenance technicians and cabin crew members.
In addition, China will need 585 dedicated and converted freighters over the next two decades, nearly tripling the current size, with demand stimulated by its booming e-commerce sector, Boeing projected.
China’s domestic air travel market is steadily picking up. In July, some 69 million trips were handled, up 10.8 percent year-on-year, a record high, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.
On Wednesday evening, domestic aircraft manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corp of China, or COMAC, will deliver one plane each of its single-aisle C919 model to State-owned carriers Air China and China Southern Airlines. The C919’s first customer, China Eastern Airlines, currently operates seven C919 jets on multiple domestic routes.